Ethereum whales have increased their positions by $950 million: market analysis and ether outlook
Over the past few weeks, Ethereum (ETH) has shown a confident 22% rebound from its June low, managing to hold above the key trend line of institutional investors. This rise coincided with renewed capital inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously recorded steady outflows for several weeks. However, despite positive signals, the market remains in a zone of uncertainty: experts debate whether a real bottom has formed or if we are witnessing another false rebound within a global downtrend.
Technical Analysis: VWAP as a Key Indicator
On June 14, the Ethereum price rose above the monthly VWAP line (volume-weighted average price). This indicator traditionally serves as a dividing line for major players between the accumulation and distribution stages of assets. Previous VWAP breakouts led to similar results: the April breakout brought a 19% rise, and the May one a more modest 7%. Notably, in both cases, capital inflows into spot ETFs resumed a few days after the breakout, indicating institutional activation at the first signs of an uptrend.
ETF Flows: A Turning Point After a Tough Streak
On June 15, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million, breaking an extremely painful series of declines. From May 11 to June 12, capital outflows were recorded almost daily, except for just two trading sessions. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million. Currently, the total net assets under management are approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery in May also started with small amounts, which then grew into a string of successful days. Therefore, if the market bottom is confirmed, we could see a repeat of this positive scenario. However, relying solely on ETFs would be a mistake, as key processes are now occurring directly within the network.
Whale Behavior: Accumulation and Capitulation
Large holders began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP line. Whales steadily increased their positions, completely ignoring the local price drop. According to Santiment analysts, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they bought coins worth a total of about $950 million. Concurrently, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market ceased around June 7, when the coin found a local low. It was then that the net change in exchange positions went negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This investor behavior indicates the transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. As a result, a seller shortage has formed in the market, which usually heralds an imminent trend change.
Key Levels and Risks
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP at $1,705. Since the beginning of June, the coin has gained about 22% from its low of $1,507, but this is still insufficient for a final reversal. To confirm the uptrend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range. The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, and at its peak exceeded $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are seeing the opposite process—open interest is rising along with the price. This situation indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than real demand in the spot market. Overloaded longs could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
Expert Opinion from Cryptalist: The accumulation of $950 million by whales is a powerful bullish signal, especially against the backdrop of declining seller activity. However, the current overload of the derivatives market creates a high risk of liquidations. A breakout above the $1,851 level will be decisive for confirming the bottom, while a drop below $1,507 would invalidate the bullish scenario. Investors should remain cautious and monitor the dynamics of open interest.