Wintermute Analysis: Bitcoin Risks Dropping to $50,000 Zone Despite Bounce
Despite Bitcoin (BTC) breaking its prolonged four-week losing streak last week and rebounding from support near $60,000 back to levels above $65,000, analysts at market maker Wintermute warn that the market bottom has likely not yet been reached. According to their estimates, the leading cryptocurrency could retest the $50,000 zone in the near term.
Two Factors Supporting the Rebound
The key catalyst for the recovery was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.2%, matching market expectations. As experts note, the main role was played by the effect of justified expectations: debt market participants had feared a higher reading, and its absence relieved some pressure. Meanwhile, core inflation slowed to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed rather than accelerating further.
The second, and more significant, factor was the resolution of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. The parties reached a fundamental agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade, with the formal signing of the accord scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This led to a sharp decline in the geopolitical risk premium: Brent crude oil collapsed from $110 to levels above $80 within a month, losing 6.6% in the past week alone. Cheaper energy directly improves inflation forecasts, which, combined with the CPI data, created a powerful synergistic effect for risky assets.
Why It's Too Early to Call a Bottom
Despite the positive backdrop, Wintermute urges caution against jumping to conclusions. The main question is when the market will turn, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows exclusively on excess liquidity flowing through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and publicly traded crypto-holding companies (DAT). At present, none of these channels show a reversal.
Assets under management at DAT companies have shrunk from $220 billion to $140 billion, and capital raising outside the strategies of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has virtually ceased. Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, while inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory.
As the history of the last cycle shows, real growth only began after the ETF approval in early 2024 and the subsequent influx of institutional capital. Currently, institutions remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are focused on trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until a reversal in capital flows occurs, declaring a bottom is premature.
Outlook and Strategy
In the long term, the risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. Nevertheless, Wintermute does not rule out a scenario where Bitcoin first drops to the $50,000 zone before conditions begin to improve. The key advice is to watch not the price or headlines, but capital flows. They, not short-term rebounds, will determine the true bottom of this cycle.
Expert opinion: The scenario of a retest of $50,000 looks realistic given the structural weakness in liquidity inflows. However, for long-term investors, current levels may already present an opportunity for gradual accumulation, especially against the backdrop of reduced geopolitical risks and potential easing of Fed monetary policy.