The Strait of Hormuz: weeks until tankers return and a hidden signal for bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement that directly impacts global liquidity and the macroeconomic backdrop for cryptocurrencies. According to him, even after a formal agreement is reached between the US and Iran, resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz will take not days, but weeks.
A real deal is the main condition for shipowners
Jotaro Tamura emphasized that shipowners will not return to the route until they see real, not declarative, changes in the strait area. "Given the experience of recent months, it is reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least several weeks, if not a month," he noted. The company has already removed four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran, and at least seven more MOL tankers are awaiting permission to pass.
Before the escalation of the conflict in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and LNG volumes passed through the strait. Since then, traffic has dropped sharply. Although individual vessels, such as the Indian gas carrier Disha with 62,370 tons of gas on board, have already begun moving, this is just a drop in the ocean. The signing of the agreement is expected in Geneva on Friday, but the speed of recovery will depend solely on the level of trust owners have in the new "safety corridor."
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This is a direct path to lowering inflation expectations. In such an environment, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin. Stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities.
Analyst's comment: The cryptocurrency market often ignores such macro signals, focusing on internal drivers. However, a reduction in the geopolitical premium in oil will inevitably weaken the narrative of "Bitcoin as a hedge against chaos." In the short term, this could create a sideways trend rather than a new impulse for BTC.