Tankers are in no rush to Hormuz: how the delay in vessel return will affect bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, stated that even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not return to the Strait of Hormuz instantly. The process of restoring traffic will take from several weeks to a month. This statement has direct implications not only for global energy markets but also for Bitcoin.
A Real Deal is the Key Factor
MOL CEO Jotaro Tamura emphasized that shipping companies will act solely based on real, not declarative, conditions. The experience of recent months, when deal announcements were repeatedly derailed, has taught operators caution. "The return of vessels will take at least several weeks, if not a month," he noted. Only after practical confirmation of safety in the strait will shipowners decide to resume routes.
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined. MOL, which owns over 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four tankers from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven more of the company's ships are awaiting permission to pass.
First Signs of Return
Nevertheless, movement has already begun. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement, carrying 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva, and the speed of traffic restoration will directly depend on the level of trust shipowners have in the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation in Hormuz reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This, in turn, leads to lower inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift to a growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
My view: Investors should consider that the de-escalation of geopolitical risks traditionally reduces appetite for "digital gold." However, this is a temporary factor—Bitcoin's long-term drivers, such as institutional adoption and the halving, remain in effect. The current correction could become an entry point for those who believe in the structural growth of the market.