Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: indicators point to a possible bottom for ETH
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has recovered 22% from its June low, holding above a key trend line for institutional investors — the monthly VWAP. This movement coincided with renewed inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had been recording outflows for weeks. However, despite positive signals, the market is still balancing on the edge: whale accumulation and signs of capitulation coexist with an overheated derivatives market.
Large holders continue to increase positions
According to on-chain analytics data, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Over the week, whales purchased coins worth approximately $950 million. Notably, accumulation occurred against the backdrop of a local price drop, indicating confidence among major players in an imminent trend reversal. Meanwhile, metrics for net position changes on exchanges turned negative on June 7, when ETH tested its local low. This signals an outflow of coins from trading platforms to cold wallets for long-term storage.
Spot ETFs: a reversal after a prolonged series of outflows
After a painful streak from May 11 to June 12, when outflows were recorded almost daily, on June 15, spot ETFs on ETH attracted $22.5 million. This positive result broke the prolonged series of declines. For comparison, on May 1, the funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million. The total net assets under management are now approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery began with small amounts that could grow into a streak of successful days if the market confirms a bottom.
Key levels and risks
Currently, ETH is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP at $1,705. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close the daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range. However, the main danger lies in excessively high leverage: open interest in ETH futures surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement. The first support level will be $1,624, with a critical point at the $1,507 low. A daily close below this level will force the market to seek new lows.
My view: Whale accumulation and renewed ETF inflows are strong bullish signals, but the derivatives market remains a "powder keg." Until there is a full liquidation of excess credit positions, it is premature to talk about the end of capitulation. Only a confident breakout above $1,851 will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.