The Strait of Hormuz: Why tankers are in no hurry to return and how this is connected to Bitcoin
The head of the world's largest tanker operator, Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), Junta Tamura, made an important statement: even after the signing of the agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not immediately return their tankers to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This process, in his estimation, will take at least several weeks, and possibly a whole month.
Tamura emphasized that the experience of recent months has taught operators caution. The announced agreement must be real and backed by facts—only then will shipping companies feel completely safe again. Thus, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month, even after politicians have signed off.
Before the conflict began at the end of February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. MOL, which operates more than 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four tankers from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven of the company's ships are still awaiting permission to pass.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already started moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait.
The speed of traffic recovery will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva, but the actual dynamics on the water will show how sustainable the peace will be.
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift to a growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities.
Analyst's comment. In my view, this situation is a classic example of how macroeconomic stability reduces appetite for risk assets in the short term. However, for Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against systemic risks, any resolution of geopolitical tensions is merely a temporary correction, not a trend reversal.