Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million in ETH: is a bottom forming or is this another false bounce?
Ethereum has staged an impressive 22% rebound from its June low, managing to hold above a key institutional investor trendline — the monthly VWAP. This surge coincided with renewed inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had been recording capital outflows for weeks.
Large holders continued to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency even during the height of the decline. Fresh on-chain data shows that since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. The weekly increase is equivalent to purchases of approximately $950 million at current prices.
Alongside this, metrics recorded a sharp decline in seller activity. Mass panic subsided around June 7, when the price found a local bottom. The net position change indicator on exchanges turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This behavior points to the transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. A seller deficit has formed in the market, which typically precedes a trend reversal.
Analysts confirm that Ethereum has been in a capitulation phase for a long time. This state of intense market pressure often precedes a powerful price reversal. The current reduction in exchange balances confirms that the acute phase of selling appears to be behind us.
Key Levels and Risks
At the moment, ETH is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP at $1,705. However, this is still insufficient for a definitive reversal. Buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851 — this would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
The main danger lies in excessively high leverage. Open interest in ETH futures has surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are witnessing the opposite process — open interest is rising along with the price. This indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward move.
The first support level in a decline will be $1,624, with the critical point at the $1,507 low. A daily close below this mark would force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident break above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.
Expert opinion: Whale accumulation and renewed ETF inflows are positive signals, but they do not yet negate the risks associated with the overheated derivatives market. To confirm a trend reversal, we need to see a sustained decline in open interest alongside a price increase. For now, we have a classic picture of a "bull trap" in its formation stage.