The Strait of Hormuz: Return of tankers will take weeks — and here's how it will impact Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines, the world's largest tanker operator, made a statement that raises questions about the timeline for restoring global logistics. According to him, even after an agreement is signed between the US and Iran, shipowners will not rush to return to the Strait of Hormuz. The process will take anywhere from several weeks to a whole month.
Trust is the main deficit
MOL CEO Jōtarō Tamura emphasized that a signed document alone is not enough. Shipowners, burned by a series of setbacks in recent months, will wait for real, tangible security guarantees in the strait. Only when conditions begin to be met in practice, not on paper, will companies decide to return vessels to the route. This process, according to expert estimates, could stretch over 2–4 weeks.
MOL itself, with over 900 vessels, already has a telling case: four tankers were withdrawn from the Persian Gulf without paying Iranian fees, and at least seven more continue to await permission for passage. The first signs have already appeared—the Indian gas carrier Disha, with 62,370 tons of gas on board, became the first Indian-flagged vessel to cross the strait after the agreement. In total, ten Indian-flagged vessels and five foreign ones have passed through Hormuz.
What does this mean for bitcoin?
The resumption of safe navigation in the strategic strait reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This leads to a decline in inflation expectations. In such an environment, traditional markets shift into growth mode, and investors begin to move from safe-haven assets, including bitcoin, into stocks and commodities.
My analysis: The short-term effect on the crypto market could be negative—we are already seeing capital outflows from digital assets in favor of "risk-on" traditional instruments. However, in the long term, a reduction in geopolitical tensions is always positive for the global economy, and therefore for bitcoin as a macro asset. Investors should simply be prepared for a temporary correction and increased volatility in the coming weeks.