The Hormuz Crisis: Why tankers won't return to the strait instantly and how it impacts Bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement that is sobering markets. According to him, even after a formal agreement is reached between the US and Iran, shipowners will not rush to restore routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The process of returning to normal traffic will take at least several weeks, and possibly a whole month.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, directly pointed to a series of negotiation breakdowns since the conflict began in late February. In recent months, operators have learned to be cautious and not jump to conclusions. He emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only under these conditions will shipping companies feel fully safe again. Consequently, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month.
Reality vs. Diplomacy
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already started moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign vessels crossed the strait. However, this is just a drop in the ocean compared to pre-crisis traffic volume, when more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas was transported through the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic restoration along the route will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor. The experience of recent months has taught them not to trust words, but to wait for actions.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities.
My analysis: However, this should not be perceived as a signal to sell. Bitcoin remains a hedge against systemic risks, and any escalation in the Middle East will bring it back into the spotlight. The current pause is more of a correction within a long-term bullish trend, supported by macroeconomic instability.