Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: signs of a bottom or a bull trap?
Ethereum (ETH) price has made an impressive 22% rebound from its June low, managing to hold above a key trend line closely watched by institutional investors. This surge coincided with renewed inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously recorded sustained capital outflows for several weeks.
Large holders, known as "whales," continued to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency even during the height of the decline. Fresh on-chain data confirms this strategy. However, the rapid increase in the volume of borrowed funds raises doubts about the stability of the current success. The market is divided: is a real bottom forming, or are we witnessing another false rebound within a global downtrend?
Ethereum retests monthly VWAP
On June 14, the Ethereum exchange rate broke through and held above the monthly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) line. For major players, this indicator serves as a clear dividing line between accumulation and distribution phases of the asset. Previous breaks of this level led to similar results: after the April breakout above VWAP, the coin rose by 19%, and the May breakout brought a more modest 7% gain.
Notably, in both cases, capital inflows into spot ETFs resumed a few days after the breakout. This dynamic indicates that institutions begin actively buying at the first signs of an upward trend. Of course, it is difficult to establish a direct causal link here, but the correlation repeats regularly, making fund statistics an important indicator to track.
Spot ETFs back in positive territory after tough streak
The sentiment reversal came at a very opportune time. The very next day after the rate held above the VWAP line, on June 15, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This positive result broke an extremely painful series of declines. From May 11 to June 12, capital outflows were recorded almost daily, with only two trading sessions as exceptions. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
Currently, the total net assets under management are approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery in May also began with small amounts, which then grew into a string of successful days. Consequently, if a market bottom is confirmed, we may see a repeat of this positive scenario. However, relying solely on ETFs would be a mistake, as key processes are now taking place directly within the network.
Whales continue buying, signs of capitulation subside
Large investors began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP line. Whales steadily increased their positions, completely ignoring the local price decline. According to Santiment analysts, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they purchased coins worth a total of about $950 million.
Concurrently, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market ceased around June 7, when the coin found a local low. It was then that the net change in exchange positions indicator turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms.
This investor behavior indicates a transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. This trend is supported by large whales, who promptly buy up any available volumes. As a result, a seller deficit has formed in the market, which usually heralds an imminent trend change. Analysts from Swissblock noted in their recent Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum has been in a capitulation phase for a long time. This state of strong market pressure often precedes a powerful price reversal.
Key Ethereum levels
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at the $1,705 level. Since the beginning of June, the coin has gained about 22% from its low of $1,507, but this is still insufficient for a final reversal.
To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range. The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, and at its peak exceeded $10.27 billion.
Typically, a reliable support for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are seeing the opposite process—open interest is rising along with the price. This state of affairs indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than real demand in the spot market. Overloaded longs could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
If a decline begins, the first support level will be $1,624, and the critical point is the low at $1,507. A daily close below this mark will force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident breakout of the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary rebound.
Expert opinion: The accumulation of $950 million in ETH by whales is a powerful bullish signal, indicating large players' belief in the asset's long-term potential. However, the growing open interest in futures creates a risk of a "short squeeze" or, conversely, a sharp liquidation of longs. Until the market clears excess leverage, any rebound will be vulnerable to sudden corrections. A true bottom will only be confirmed by a confident breakout of $1,851.