Analysts warn: Bitcoin may test the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing another period of uncertainty. Despite a recent bounce from the $60,000 level, leading analysts at market maker Wintermute are not rushing to declare a bottom. Their forecast appears much more cautious: Bitcoin (BTC) could retest the area near $50,000 before a sustained rally begins.
Last week, the leading cryptocurrency broke a prolonged four-week losing streak, bouncing off support at $60,000 and returning above the $65,000 mark. This momentum was supported by two fundamental factors that, for the first time in a long while, aligned in the same direction.
The key catalyst was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.2%, marking the highest reading since April 2023 and the third consecutive acceleration. However, the figure matched market expectations, while core inflation slowed to 2.9%. In my view, it was precisely this alignment with forecasts that served as the main trigger: debt market participants had priced in a higher outcome, but it did not materialize, temporarily easing pressure on risk assets.
The second, and in my opinion more significant, factor was the resolution of the geopolitical crisis between the US and Iran. After more than 100 days of confrontation, the parties announced a deal that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the naval blockade. The formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil plummeted from $110 to levels above $80 within a month, losing 6.6% over the week.
The decline in the geopolitical risk premium dragged down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves the inflation outlook, so the CPI data and the de-escalation of the conflict this week did not cancel each other out but rather reinforced one another. I see the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership, scheduled for June 17, as the next near-term catalyst.
Why has the bottom still not been reached?
The key question, in my firm belief, lies not in the price itself, but in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity flowing through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). At this point, none of these channels are reversing.
Assets under management of DAT companies have shrunk from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, the attraction of new capital has virtually ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, and the inflow of funds into stablecoins is following the same downward trajectory.
Let me remind you how the previous cycle began: real growth started with the approval of ETFs in early 2024 and the subsequent capital inflow. Now, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are focused on trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until there is a reversal in capital flows, declaring a bottom is, in my view, premature.
The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive over the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. Nevertheless, I do not rule out that Bitcoin could move into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves. My advice: watch the capital flows, not the price or news headlines.