Strait of Hormuz: why tankers are in no hurry to return and how it affects bitcoin
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are gradually easing, but a return to normal shipping is not a matter of a single week. The head of the world's largest tanker operator, Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), Jotaro Tamura, warned: even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, ship owners will not rush back to the route. The process of restoring traffic, in his estimation, will take from several weeks to a month.
Real conditions, not paper agreements
Tamura emphasizes that shipping companies have learned from the bitter experience of recent months. The announced agreement itself means nothing — real, tangible security guarantees in the strait are needed. Only when ship owners see the actual fulfillment of the conditions will they risk returning their tankers to this strategic route. Let me remind you that before the conflict began at the end of February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and its blockade became a powerful blow to global logistics.
MOL itself, which operates over 900 vessels, already has four tankers that have been withdrawn from the Persian Gulf without paying Iranian fees. At least seven more of the company's ships are awaiting permission to pass. The first signs, however, have already appeared: the Indian gas carrier Disha, with 62,370 tons of gas on board, became the first vessel under the Indian flag to cross the strait after the deal was announced. In total, according to officials, ten Indian and five foreign ships have already traversed the strait.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
The stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a direct blow to inflation expectations. The restoration of safe shipping reduces logistical risks and stabilizes energy prices. In such an environment, traditional markets — stocks and commodities — shift into growth mode, drawing capital away from safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, which in recent months has increasingly been viewed as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, may face a temporary outflow of liquidity. Paradoxically, the reduction in tensions in the strait could slow down the rally in the crypto market, redirecting investor interest toward more traditional and understandable instruments in conditions of stability.
My analysis: We are seeing a classic shift in risk appetite. As soon as geopolitical tensions subside, "risk-on" capital moves from speculative digital assets into the real sector. However, this is a temporary phenomenon — the long-term drivers of Bitcoin's growth, such as institutional adoption and the halving, remain in force.