Wintermute Analysis: Bitcoin risks falling into the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
The digital asset market has once again found itself at a crossroads. Despite Bitcoin (BTC) breaking its prolonged losing streak last week and bouncing back above $65,000 from the psychologically important $60,000 mark, leading analysts at market maker Wintermute warn that this is not yet the bottom. In their assessment, an attractive long-term risk-reward ratio does not rule out the possibility of a new crash toward levels near $50,000.
The key catalyst for the rebound was the May U.S. inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.2% year-over-year, matching market expectations. However, as analysts rightly note, the main factor was not the figure itself, but the absence of a negative surprise. Debt market participants had braced for the worst, and the alignment with forecasts relieved significant pressure. Moreover, core inflation slowed to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed.
Geopolitics and Oil: A Double Blow to Risk Assets
The second, and perhaps more significant, driver was the resolution of the prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The parties reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a collapse in Brent oil prices. Over the past month, "black gold" has lost more than 6.6%, dropping from $110 to levels above $80. The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium pulled down government bond yields and the U.S. dollar. Cheaper oil directly improves inflation forecasts, so the CPI data and the end of the conflict this week reinforced rather than offset each other. The next catalyst for the market will be the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership on June 17.
Why Is the Bottom Still Ahead?
The main question, according to Wintermute experts, is not price but liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows solely on excess liquidity flowing through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). Currently, none of these channels show a reversal.
Assets under management at DAT companies have shrunk from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and new capital raising beyond Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has virtually ceased. ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, while inflows into stablecoins follow the same downward trajectory. Institutional investors remain on the sidelines, and retail traders have shifted to trading leveraged stocks and funds. Until a reversal occurs in these flows, declaring a bottom is premature.
My Expert Opinion: The market is in a "weak hands washout" phase. Each sell-off leaves behind a more resilient base of holders, but a full recovery is still far off. A potential dip into the $50,000 zone is not just a technical scenario but a real possibility for a market "reset," after which a new growth cycle will begin. Watch the capital, not the headlines.