Ethereum whales are buying $950 million worth of ether: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Since mid-June, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded 22% from its local low, consolidating above the key VWAP line. This indicator, calculated as the volume-weighted average price, serves as a dividing line for major players between accumulation and distribution phases.
Institutional Interest Returns
Notably, the VWAP breakout coincided with renewed capital inflows into spot ETH ETFs. After a prolonged outflow streak lasting from May 11 to June 12, net inflows reached $22.5 million on June 15. While this is still a modest amount, the recovery in May also began with small figures ($101 million on May 1 and $98 million on May 5), which later grew into a series of successful days. The total net assets under management for ETFs are now approaching the $10.04 billion mark.
Whales Act Ahead of the Curve
However, key processes are currently unfolding directly on-chain. Large holders began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP. According to Santiment data, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have increased from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they purchased coins worth approximately $950 million.
Simultaneously, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. The net exchange position change indicator turned negative around June 7, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This behavior indicates a transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. A shortage of sellers has formed in the market, which typically foreshadows an imminent trend reversal.
Risks and Key Levels
The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. Open interest in ETH futures surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. The rise in open interest alongside price points to the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement.
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP level of $1,705. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close the daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range. The first support on a decline is the $1,624 level, with the critical point being the low at $1,507. A daily close below this mark would force the market to seek new lows.
My Opinion: The actions of whales and institutions are a powerful bullish signal, indicating confidence in Ethereum's long-term value. However, the current overheating of the derivatives market makes any upward impulse vulnerable to sharp corrections. The true bottom will only be confirmed after a decisive breakout above $1,851 and the complete liquidation of excess credit positions.