The Strait of Hormuz: Why tankers are in no hurry to return, and how this is connected to Bitcoin
The head of the world's largest tanker operator, Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), Juntao Tamura, made a statement shedding light on the real timeline for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, even after a potential agreement between the US and Iran, the return of tankers to this critical route will take not days, but weeks or even a full month.
Tamura emphasized that shipowners, burned by the experience of recent months, will not blindly trust paper agreements. For them, real, fact-backed security guarantees in the strait itself are critically important. Only when these conditions are met will companies decide to return their vessels to the route, which before the conflict began in late February facilitated the transit of more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes.
Reality on the Water: From Words to Deeds
At MOL, which operates a fleet of over 900 vessels, precautionary measures have already been taken. Four of the company's tankers were withdrawn from the Persian Gulf without paying Iranian fees, and at least seven vessels are still awaiting permission to pass. This clearly demonstrates the high level of distrust and caution prevailing in the industry.
Nevertheless, the first signs have already appeared. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to transit the strait after the ceasefire announcement, carrying 62,370 tons of gas. In total, according to official data, ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement itself is expected on Friday in Geneva. However, the speed of full traffic recovery will directly depend on how much shipowners believe in the safety of the new corridor.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
The connection between geopolitics around Hormuz and the crypto market is a classic macroeconomic scenario. The resumption of safe shipping directly reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This, in turn, leads to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including bitcoin.
My analysis: The stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is certainly positive for the global economy, but for bitcoin, it is a potential factor of short-term pressure. Capital outflows from "digital gold" into stocks and commodities are a natural market reaction to a decrease in the geopolitical premium. However, it is worth remembering that this is a temporary effect, and the fundamental drivers of BTC growth, such as the halving and institutional adoption, have not gone away.