Analysts warn: Bitcoin risks dropping to the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
The digital asset market is experiencing a moment of fragile equilibrium. Bitcoin's recent rebound from the $60,000 mark back to levels above $65,000 interrupted a prolonged four-week decline, but it is still premature to talk about a trend reversal. On the contrary, fundamental indicators point to a high probability of a retest and even a breakout of the psychological $50,000 zone.
Two supporting factors that worked in sync
The key trigger for the recovery was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.2%, matching market expectations. Debt market participants had feared a higher figure, and the alignment with the consensus relieved some of the tension. Notably, core inflation slowed to 2.9% — a signal that the energy impulse has likely passed its peak and is not accelerating further.
The second, and more significant factor, is the de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. The parties reached a fundamental agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. Formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude collapsed from $110 to levels above $80 over the month, losing 6.6% in the last week alone.
The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium dragged down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheap oil directly improves the inflation outlook, so the CPI data and the end of the conflict this week reinforced, rather than offset, each other. The nearest catalyst for the market will be the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership on June 17.
Why the bottom has not yet been reached
The main question now is when the market will turn, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). None of them show a reversal yet.
Assets under management of DAT companies have shrunk from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new capital attraction has almost ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, and the inflow of funds into stablecoins follows the same downward trajectory.
Let me remind you how the last cycle began: real growth started with the approval of ETFs in early 2024 and the capital inflow they brought. Now, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are busy trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until a reversal occurs, it is premature to declare that the bottom has been reached.
My expert assessment: the current correction is not just a technical drawdown, but a structural reassessment of risks. The risk/reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. However, I do not rule out that bitcoin will move into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves. Watch capital flows, not headlines — this is the only reliable indicator in the current conditions.