Bitcoin in the crosshairs: analysts see risk of a drop to $50,000 despite the bounce
Despite the recent bounce from the $60,000 zone and a return above $65,000, I believe it is too early to relax. An analysis of market structure and the macroeconomic background indicates that the current recovery may be merely a temporary respite, rather than the start of a new uptrend. The key signal is not so much the price itself, but the state of capital flows, which have yet to show signs of a reversal.
Last week broke a prolonged series of declines, and this happened thanks to two factors working in unison for the first time in a long while. First, the May US inflation data (CPI) showed an annual increase of 4.2%, which matched market expectations. The core consumer price index, on the other hand, slowed to 2.9%. This suggests that the energy-driven inflationary impulse has likely passed its peak, easing concerns among debt market participants. Second, the geopolitical factor — the de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. The deal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp drop in Brent oil from $110 to levels above $80 per barrel, directly improving inflation forecasts.
However, the synergy of these events does not mean the market bottom has been reached. The main question now is when the channels of liquidity inflow will reverse, and the answer so far is discouraging. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity through three main channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). None of them show a reversal. Assets under management of DAT companies have shrunk from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and the attraction of new capital beyond Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has virtually stopped. ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, and inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory.
Institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are focused on trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until a reversal occurs in these flows, it is premature to declare that a bottom has been reached. The attractive risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range is a long-term perspective, not a signal for immediate buying. Each sell-off does indeed leave behind a more resilient base of holders, but this does not rule out the possibility of further declines.
My conclusion: The market is in a consolidation phase, and I do not rule out that Bitcoin could move into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves. Watch the capital, not the headlines — it is what determines the next major trend.