Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: a signal for a reversal or a trap for bulls?
Ethereum (ETH) is showing a confident recovery, rising 22% from its June low. This surge has allowed the asset to hold above the key VWAP line, which is closely watched by institutional investors. Notably, the rally coincided with renewed inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously experienced prolonged outflows.
Large holders are increasing their positions
Whales continued to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency even during the downturn, as confirmed by recent on-chain data. However, the rapid growth in the volume of borrowed funds raises doubts about the stability of this success. Therefore, experts are debating whether the market has formed a real bottom or if this is another false bounce within a global downtrend.
Ethereum holds the monthly VWAP line again
On June 14, the Ethereum price rose above the monthly VWAP line. This volume-weighted average price serves as a dividing line for major players between the accumulation and distribution stages of assets. Previous breakouts of this indicator led to similar results: after the April breakout above VWAP, the coin rose by 19%, while the May breakout brought a more modest 7% gain.
Spot ETF flows turn positive again
The shift in sentiment came at a very opportune time. Literally the day after the price stabilized above the VWAP line, on June 15, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This positive result broke a very painful series of declines. From May 11 to June 12, capital outflows were recorded almost daily, with the exception of just two trading sessions.
Whales continue buying, signs of capitulation subside
Large investors began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP line. Whales steadily increased their positions, completely ignoring the local price drop. According to analysts at Santiment, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they purchased coins worth a total of approximately $950 million.
In parallel, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local bottom. It was then that the net change in exchange positions indicator turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms for long-term storage.
Key levels for Ethereum
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at the $1,705 level. To confirm the uptrend, buyers need to close the daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
My view: The accumulation of $950 million by whales is a powerful bullish signal that cannot be ignored. However, the current situation with an overheated derivatives market reminds me of a classic trap: growth on leverage often ends in a sharp crash. Only a confident breakout above $1,851 will confirm a true bottom, rather than another false bounce. I maintain cautious optimism but recommend monitoring the dynamics of open interest—this is now the main indicator of market health.