Ethereum whales bought ETH worth $950 million: is a bottom forming or is this a trap?
Since mid-June, Ethereum (ETH) has shown a confident recovery, bouncing 22% from the local low recorded at the beginning of the month. This surge allowed the asset to consolidate above a key trend line traditionally watched by institutional players — the monthly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price). Notably, the rally coincided with a resumption of capital inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously experienced a prolonged series of outflows.
Large holders act ahead of the curve
Analysis of on-chain data shows that whales (addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 ETH) began actively increasing their positions even before the chart crossed the VWAP. From June 10, the balances of this category of investors grew from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. At the current exchange rate, this is equivalent to purchases of approximately $950 million. This behavior is a classic sign that large capital considers current levels attractive for long-term accumulation.
At the same time, a decrease in seller activity is recorded. The net position indicator on exchanges turned negative around June 7, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This means investors prefer to withdraw ETH to cold wallets rather than keep them on exchanges for sale. This creates a supply deficit, which historically often precedes a trend reversal to the upside.
ETFs turn around after a painful streak
The shift in sentiment in the ETF market came at a crucial time. From May 11 to June 12, spot ETH funds recorded outflows almost daily, except for two trading sessions. For comparison, the situation was different in early May: on May 1, inflows were $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
On June 15, the day after the price consolidated above VWAP, net inflows into ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This is a modest sum, but it broke the prolonged streak of negativity. The total net assets under management of the funds are now approaching $10.04 billion. If the market confirms a bottom, we could see a repeat of the May scenario, where small inflows grew into a confident series of purchases.
Risks from derivatives
Despite the positive signals, it is too early to relax. The main threat lies in the overheated derivatives market. Open interest in ETH futures jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. The rise in open interest alongside the price indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market.
Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced closures (liquidations) at the slightest downward movement. Therefore, it is still premature to declare the end of the capitulation phase. The key level to confirm a bullish scenario remains $1,851. A confident break above this resistance will open the path back to the previous trading range. In the event of a breakdown of support at $1,624, the next target will be the June low of $1,507, a break of which would completely invalidate the current recovery scenario.
Cryptalist expert opinion: The current picture resembles classic accumulation in a reversal phase. Whales and ETFs are acting in sync, but the derivatives market hangs like a sword of Damocles. Until open interest declines, any rally will be vulnerable to a sharp shakeout. The true bottom will only be confirmed after excessive leverage is cleared out.