Ethereum whales have increased their positions by $950 million: is a bottom forming for ether?
Ether (ETH) made an impressive move, rebounding 22% from its June low. This momentum allowed the price to settle above the key VWAP line, which is closely watched by institutional players. Notably, the rally coincided with a resumption of inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously recorded steady capital outflows for several weeks.
Large holders, or "whales," not only were unfazed by the decline but actively increased their holdings. According to fresh on-chain data, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they bought up coins worth approximately $950 million. This is a powerful bullish signal, indicating the confidence of "smart money" in the medium-term outlook.
Institutions Return: ETFs Back in the Green
The sentiment shift came at a very opportune time. On June 15, literally the day after the price settled above the VWAP, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This result broke a highly painful streak of outflows that had lasted from May 11 to June 12 — with only two trading sessions showing inflows during that period. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
The total net assets under management for ETFs are now approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery in May also started with small amounts, which then grew into a series of successful days. Therefore, if a market bottom is confirmed, we could see a repeat of this positive scenario.
Whales Buy, Sellers Disappear
Alongside whale accumulation, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local low. It was then that the net exchange position change indicator turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This investor behavior points to the transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. As a result, a shortage of sellers has formed in the market, which typically foreshadows an imminent trend change.
Analysts at Swissblock noted in their recent Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum had been in a capitulation phase for a long time. This state of intense market pressure often precedes a powerful price reversal. The current reduction in exchange balances confirms that the acute selling phase appears to be truly behind us.
Key Levels and Risks
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at the $1,705 level. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range. The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. Total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, and at its peak exceeded $10.27 billion.
Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward move, so it is too early to declare the end of capitulation. If a decline begins, the first support will be the $1,624 level, with a critical point at the $1,507 low. A daily close below this mark would force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident break above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.
My comment: Whale accumulation of $950 million in a week is undoubtedly a bullish signal, but we must not forget about the overheated derivatives market. Until we see a reduction in open interest and sustained inflows into spot ETFs, any upward move will be vulnerable to sharp corrections. The bottom may already be in place, but final confirmation will only come after a firm close above $1,851.