The Strait of Hormuz: return of tankers will take weeks — what this means for Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement that directly impacts global energy markets and, consequently, the macroeconomic backdrop for cryptocurrencies. According to him, even after an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the return of tankers to the Strait of Hormuz will not be immediate — the process could take anywhere from several weeks to a full month.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that shipowners will not rush to return to the routes until they see real evidence of safety. The announced agreement, in his view, must be backed by on-the-ground facts. Only then will shipping companies decide to resume transit. Given the experience of recent months, when deals have repeatedly fallen through, the operators' caution is entirely justified.
Reality, Not Promises
Tamura noted that a signed document between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation directly in the Strait of Hormuz are crucial. MOL, which owns more than 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four ships from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL tankers are still awaiting permission to pass.
Meanwhile, some cargo movement has already begun. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement was announced. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement itself is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic restoration will directly depend on how much shipowners trust the safety of the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is a powerful signal for the global economy. Reduced logistical risks and stabilization of energy supplies lead to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets typically shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for protective alternative assets, including bitcoin.
My analysis: Stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market, as capital begins to flow into stocks and commodities. However, this is a short-term effect. Once inflation expectations are fully stabilized, bitcoin may again attract attention as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation amid potential monetary policy easing.