The Strait of Hormuz: return of tankers will take weeks, and Bitcoin is at risk
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made an important statement: even after the agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not return to the Strait of Hormuz instantly. This process could take from several weeks to a whole month.
MOL CEO Jōtarō Tamura emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel completely safe again. Accordingly, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month.
Caution after months of chaos
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war. Over the past months, operators have learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions.
"Given the experience of the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he said in an interview.
The company's head emphasized that the signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route.
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign vessels have crossed the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic restoration along the route will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor.
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. In such conditions, traditional markets shift to growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
Cryptalist Analysis: In the short term, Bitcoin may lose some of its "risk premium," which fueled its growth during geopolitical instability. However, if de-escalation proves temporary, the cryptocurrency will once again become the main beneficiary of uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor real traffic in the strait, not political statements.