Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: is a bottom forming for ether?
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has made a confident rebound from its June low, rising by 22%. This momentum allowed the asset to consolidate above a key trend line closely watched by institutional players. Notably, the recovery coincided with a resumption of inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had recorded net capital outflows for several weeks prior.
Large holders, or "whales," continued to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency even during the local downturn. Fresh on-chain data confirms this trend. However, the rapid increase in the volume of borrowed funds in the derivatives market casts doubt on the sustainability of the current recovery. The question of whether a real price bottom has been formed or if we are witnessing another false bounce within a global downtrend remains open.
Ethereum Holds the Monthly VWAP Line Again
On June 14, the Ethereum price broke through and consolidated above the monthly Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). For institutional participants, this line serves as a crucial dividing line between phases of accumulation and distribution of the asset. Previous breaks of this indicator led to similar results: after breaking above VWAP in April, the coin rose by 19%, while the May breakout brought a more modest 7% gain.
Characteristically, in both cases, capital inflows into spot ETFs resumed a few days after the breakout. This dynamic indicates that institutions begin actively buying at the first signs of an emerging uptrend. Of course, it is difficult to establish a direct causal link here, but the correlation repeats regularly, making fund statistics a vital indicator for retail investors.
ETF Inflows: A Reversal After a Painful Streak
The shift in sentiment came just in time. The very next day after the price consolidated above VWAP, on June 15, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This positive result broke an extremely painful streak of declines. From May 11 to June 12, capital outflows were recorded almost daily, with only two trading sessions as exceptions. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
Currently, the total net assets under management are approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery in May also began with small amounts, which then grew into a series of successful days. Consequently, if a market bottom is confirmed, we may see a repeat of this positive scenario. However, relying solely on ETFs would be a mistake, as key processes are now occurring directly within the network.
Whales Continue Buying: Signs of Capitulation Fade
Large investors began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP line. They systematically increased their positions, completely ignoring the local price decline. According to data from Santiment analysts, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they bought coins worth a total of approximately $950 million.
Concurrently, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass market panic subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local bottom. It was then that the net exchange position change indicator turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This investor behavior indicates a transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage.
This trend is supported by large whales, who are quickly buying up any available volumes. As a result, a seller deficit has formed in the market, which usually heralds an imminent trend change. Analysts from Swissblock noted in their recent Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum has been in a phase of capitulation for a long time. This state of strong market pressure often precedes a powerful price reversal.
The current reduction in exchange balances confirms that the acute phase of selling appears to be truly behind us. Nevertheless, the overall picture is significantly marred by the situation in the derivatives market.
Key Ethereum Levels: The Danger of High Leverage
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at the $1,705 level. Since the beginning of June, the coin has gained about 22% from its low of $1,507, but this is still insufficient for a definitive reversal. To confirm an uptrend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth is formed only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are observing the opposite process—open interest is rising along with the price. This situation indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
If a decline begins, the first support level will be $1,624, and the critical point will be the low of $1,507. A daily close below this mark would force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident break of the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.
Expert Opinion: Whale accumulation of $950 million and the resumption of ETF inflows are powerful bullish signals. However, the rise in futures open interest is concerning. Until we see a reduction in leverage and a confident break above $1,851, the current bounce should be viewed as a correction within a bearish trend, rather than the start of a new rally.