Strait of Hormuz: why tankers are in no hurry to return and how it affects bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines, the world's largest tanker operator, made an important statement shedding light on the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, it will take more than a few weeks for vessels to return to this strategic route. Shipowners will not rush, and this is understandable.
The company's CEO, Jyotaro Tamura, emphasized that resuming traffic requires not just a formal agreement, but real, fact-backed security guarantees. Only then will shipping companies feel completely safe again. Restoring previous traffic levels, in his estimation, could take anywhere from a couple of weeks to a full month.
The Path to Trust: From Words to Deeds
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war — over the past months, operators have learned caution and are not jumping to conclusions.
"Given the experience of the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he stated in an interview with the Financial Times.
The company's leader emphasized that a signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route. MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas on board. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic recovery along the route will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. In such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for protective alternative assets, including bitcoin. As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows favoring stocks and commodities.
Analyst's Comment: Until tankers fully return to the strait, the market will remain in a state of uncertainty. For bitcoin, this means potential reduced volatility and consolidation in a sideways range, as investors reassess risks. However, in the long term, a reduction in geopolitical tensions is a positive signal for all risky assets.