The Strait of Hormuz: Why tankers are in no hurry to return, and how this threatens Bitcoin
Even if Washington and Tehran sign the long-awaited agreement, tankers will not return to the Strait of Hormuz instantly. As stated by the head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, the process of restoring shipping could take from several weeks to a full month. This statement is not just a statement of fact, but a harsh market reality that must be considered when analyzing global risks.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, directly pointed out that shipowners have become extremely cautious after a series of deal failures and military incidents in recent months. He emphasized that a mere "paper" agreement is not enough. Companies need to see actual compliance with the terms in the strait to feel safe. Only then will they decide to return their vessels to this route.
Let me remind you that before the conflict began at the end of February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, traffic has dropped sharply. MOL itself, which has over 900 vessels, already has four tankers that left the Persian Gulf without paying Iranian fees, and at least seven units are still awaiting permission to pass.
Nevertheless, the first signs of a détente are already here. The Indian gas carrier Disha, with 62,370 tons of gas on board, became the first vessel flying the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the ceasefire announcement. In total, ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement itself is expected on Friday in Geneva.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
The connection here is direct and fundamental. Restoring safe navigation in Hormuz reduces global logistical risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This leads to a decline in inflation expectations. In such an environment, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin.
My analysis: In the short term, stabilization of the situation in the strait could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market, causing capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities. However, if the recovery process drags on for a month, as the head of MOL warns, uncertainty will persist, and Bitcoin could once again gain support as a hedge against global instability. Investors should closely monitor the pace of tanker returns—this will be a key indicator of sentiment at the macro level.