Wintermute analysts: Bitcoin may test the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
The Bitcoin market is going through a tough period. Despite a recent bounce from the $60,000 zone and a return to levels above $65,000, leading analysts warn that this is not yet a trend reversal. In my assessment, the current dynamics represent a classic "bear market rally" against the backdrop of a temporary reduction in macroeconomic risks.
What triggered the bounce
Two key factors worked in unison, providing support for the first cryptocurrency for the first time in a long while. First, the May US inflation data. The annual CPI stood at 4.2% — the highest since April 2023, but it matched market expectations. Debt market participants had braced for the worst but received a predictable result. At the same time, core inflation slowed to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed.
The second, more significant catalyst is the resolution of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. After more than 100 days of confrontation, the parties agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade. The formal signing of the agreement is scheduled for June 19. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil plummeted from $110 to levels above $80 per barrel, losing 6.6% in a week. The reduction in the geopolitical premium dragged down the dollar and government bond yields, directly improving inflation expectations.
Why the bottom has not yet been reached
Despite the positive backdrop, I agree with my colleagues at Wintermute: it is premature to declare that the bottom has been reached. The main issue is liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows solely on excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). None of these channels are turning around yet.
Assets under management of DAT companies have shrunk from $220 billion to $140 billion. The inflow of new capital beyond Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has nearly halted. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch. Inflows into stablecoins are also on a downward trajectory.
Institutional investors remain on the sidelines, while retail traders have shifted to trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until there is a reversal in capital flows, any rally will be vulnerable. The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, but each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders.
My conclusion: Bitcoin could drop to the $50,000 zone before the situation improves. The market needs time to "wash out" weak hands and attract new institutional capital. Watch the flows, not the price — they will signal the true turning point.