Bitcoin in the Crosshairs: Wintermute Analysts Predict a Drop to $50,000
Despite the recent rebound of the first cryptocurrency from the $60,000 zone, it is too early for the market to relax. Wintermute analysts warn: the current rally may turn out to be a false signal, and Bitcoin (BTC) could retest the $50,000 level. An attractive risk-reward ratio in the long term does not mean that the bottom has already been reached.
Last week, BTC broke its prolonged four-week losing streak, bouncing from support at the $60,000 mark back to $65,000+. This momentum was supported by two macroeconomic factors that aligned in direction for the first time in a long while.
What drove the market up
The first is the May US inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.2% year-over-year, marking the highest value since April 2023. However, the key point was not the number itself, but its alignment with expectations. Market participants had priced in a higher scenario, and the confirmation of forecasts relieved some of their tension. Core CPI meanwhile slowed to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed.
The second, and more significant factor, is the de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. The parties announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with formal signing scheduled for June 19. This led to a sharp decline in the geopolitical premium: Brent crude oil crashed from $110 to $80 over the month, losing 6.6% in the last week alone. Cheaper energy directly improves inflation forecasts, creating an extremely favorable backdrop for risk assets.
Why it's too early to celebrate
The main question facing the market now is not where the price will go, but when capital flows will turn. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows solely on excess liquidity coming through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and publicly traded cryptocurrency-holding companies (DAT). And none of these channels have yet shown a reversal.
Assets under management of DAT companies have shrunk from $220 billion to $140 billion, and the attraction of new capital outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has virtually halted. Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch. Inflows into stablecoins are also on a downward trajectory. Institutions remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are focused on trading stocks and leveraged funds.
Wintermute recalls how the previous cycle began: real growth started with the approval of ETFs and the subsequent inflow of institutional capital. Today, we are seeing the opposite picture. Until a reversal in flows occurs, it is premature to declare that the bottom has been reached.
My view
Wintermute's forecast seems quite reasonable. The market is currently squeezed between two forces: a positive macro backdrop that provides short-term bounces, and the lack of real liquidity inflows needed for sustainable growth. Until we see renewed buying from ETFs and corporate treasuries, each sell-off will leave an increasingly vulnerable holder base. The $50,000 zone is not a catastrophe, but rather a natural consolidation level before the next big move. Investors should focus on capital flows, not price headlines.