The Strait of Hormuz: The return of tankers will take weeks — what this means for Bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator, stated that shipowners will not return to the Strait of Hormuz instantly. Even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, this process will take from several weeks to a month. This statement is not just a logistical detail, but an important signal for global markets and cryptocurrencies.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel fully safe again. The experience of recent months, when deals fell through, has taught operators caution. Restoring traffic through the strait will take at least a couple of weeks, or even a whole month.
Reality on the Water: First Steps
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined. MOL, which owns more than 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four tankers from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven of the company's ships are still awaiting permission to pass.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. In total, ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic recovery will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistical risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This leads to a decline in inflation expectations, which traditionally pushes investors toward risk assets such as stocks and commodities. However, for Bitcoin, which is often perceived as a safe-haven asset, this creates a dual situation.
On one hand, reduced geopolitical tension decreases demand for "safe havens," temporarily slowing capital inflows into cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, stability in energy markets reduces volatility, which could attract institutional investors seeking long-term investments. Nevertheless, in the short term, capital outflows in favor of traditional markets may put pressure on Bitcoin's price.
My professional opinion: The cryptocurrency market is currently in a correction phase, and news of stabilization in the Strait of Hormuz only reinforces this trend. However, the long-term outlook remains bullish: lower inflation and a strengthening global economy lay the foundation for a new rally, but only after investors shift their focus back to digital assets.