Wintermute Analysis: Bitcoin risks testing the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
Contrary to the optimism sparked by the recent bounce from the $60,000 level, leading market maker Wintermute warns: the bottom for Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet been reached. The company's analysts anticipate a potential retest of levels near $50,000, citing significant macroeconomic and structural reasons.
Last week, the leading cryptocurrency broke its prolonged four-week losing streak, rebounding from the $60,000 zone back above the $65,000 mark. However, this momentum is not a signal of a trend reversal. Two key factors that simultaneously worked in favor of buyers appear to be more of a temporary respite rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions.
Macroeconomic Background: Inflation and Geopolitics Played in Favor
The first catalyst was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 2023 and the third consecutive acceleration. However, the key point was that the figure matched market expectations. Debt market participants, who had feared a higher reading, found relief. Additionally, core inflation slowed to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed rather than accelerating further.
The second, and perhaps more significant, factor was the de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. The parties announced a preliminary deal involving the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the naval blockade. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil plummeted from above $110 to levels above $80 over the past month, losing 6.6% in the last week alone. The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium dragged down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves inflation forecasts, amplifying the effect of the CPI data. The next catalyst to watch, I believe, is the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership, scheduled for June 17.
Why the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Reached: Liquidity Is Not Turning Around
The main question, according to analysts, is not whether Bitcoin will fall further, but when capital flows will reverse. BTC remains a macro asset that thrives on excess liquidity coming through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). None of these currently show signs of a turnaround.
Assets under management of DAT companies have shrunk from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and the inflow of new capital beyond Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has virtually ceased. Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since their launch. Inflows into stablecoins are also on a downward trajectory.
Let me remind you how the last cycle began: real growth started with the ETF approval in early 2024 and the subsequent capital inflow. Now, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors have shifted to trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until a reversal occurs in these flows, it is premature to declare that the bottom has been reached.
My conclusion: The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term. Each sell-off leaves behind a more resilient holder base. Nevertheless, I do not rule out Bitcoin moving into the $50,000 zone before the situation begins to improve. The main advice is to watch capital flows, not price or news headlines.