The Strait of Hormuz: Tankers will not return instantly — what this means for Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made an important statement: shipowners will not immediately return to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even after an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, this process will take several weeks.
Jotaro Tamura, CEO of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only under such conditions will shipping companies feel fully safe again. Consequently, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to an entire month.
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war. Over recent months, operators have learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions.
"Given the experience of the past couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he noted in an interview.
The company's head stressed that a signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route.
MOL operates over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting permission to pass.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic recovery along the route will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor.
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. In such conditions, traditional markets shift to growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows favoring stocks and commodities.
Expert comment: In my view, the market is currently underestimating the time lag in restoring supply chains. Even under an ideal scenario, a full return of traffic will take at least a month. For Bitcoin, this means a reduction in the geopolitical premium, but not a complete disappearance of volatility. Investors should prepare for a shift in drivers: from "fear" to "greed" in traditional assets, which could create pressure on cryptocurrencies in the short term.