Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Ethereum (ETH) made a confident rebound from June lows, rising by 22%. This surge allowed the asset to settle above the key VWAP line, which is closely watched by institutional players. Notably, the recovery coincided with a resumption of inflows into spot ETFs on ETH, which had previously shown sustained capital outflows for several weeks.
Large holders, known as "whales," continued to actively accumulate coins even during the decline phase. According to fresh on-chain data, the balances of millionaire wallets increased from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH in just one week. In dollar terms, this equates to approximately $950 million acquired since June 10.
Institutional Interest Returns
The turning point came on June 14, when the ETH price broke through the monthly VWAP line. The very next day, June 15, net inflows into spot ETFs on Ethereum amounted to $22.5 million. This broke an extremely painful series of outflows that had lasted from May 11 to June 12 — with the exception of just two trading sessions. For comparison, at the beginning of May, funds attracted $101 million and $98 million over two days.
The total volume of net assets under management in spot ETFs is now approaching the $10.04 billion mark. However, relying solely on ETF data would be a mistake — key processes are currently unfolding directly within the network.
Capitulation Behind? Not So Clear-Cut
Mass panic in the market stopped on June 7, when the asset found a local low. It was then that the net change in positions on exchanges turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This is a standard sign of transferring cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage.
Analysts at Swissblock noted in their Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum had been in a phase of capitulation for a long time — a state of strong market pressure that often precedes a powerful price reversal. The current reduction in exchange balances confirms that the acute phase of selling appears to be truly behind us.
However, the overall picture is significantly marred by the situation in the derivatives market. Open interest in ETH futures jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. The rise in leverage indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than real demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
Key Levels for Ethereum
Currently, ETH is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP at $1,705. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close the daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
If a decline begins, the first support will be the $1,624 level, with a critical point at the $1,507 low. A daily close below this mark will force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident breakout above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.
My opinion: Whale accumulation and the return of ETF inflows are bullish signals, but the derivatives market remains overheated. Without a full liquidation of excess credit positions, the rally will be fragile. I am waiting for confirmation at the $1,851 level before betting on long-term growth.