The Strait of Hormuz: The return of tankers will take weeks, and Bitcoin will feel the pressure
Global logistics is on the verge of a major shift, but the return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take much longer than it might seem at first glance. The head of the world's largest tanker operator, Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), Junta Tamura, sent a clear signal to the market: even after a formal agreement between the US and Iran is reached, shipowners will not immediately rush to restore routes.
According to Tamura's estimates, the process of returning tankers to the strait could take anywhere from several weeks to a whole month. The reason is a deep loss of trust following a series of disruptions and military incidents that began in late February. Operators have learned from bitter experience and now demand not just paper guarantees, but real, fact-backed security conditions in the region.
Before the conflict began, more than one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Daily traffic has dropped sharply, and its recovery will be slow. MOL itself, which operates a fleet of over 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four tankers from the Persian Gulf without paying Iranian fees, and at least seven more of the company's ships are awaiting passage clearance.
The first glimmer of optimism is the Indian gas carrier Disha, carrying 62,370 tons of gas, which became the first Indian-flagged vessel to pass through the strait after the ceasefire announcement. According to official data, a total of ten Indian and five foreign ships have crossed the strait. However, this is just a drop in the ocean compared to previous volumes.
The signing of the agreement itself is expected on Friday in Geneva, but the actual speed of traffic recovery will depend solely on how much shipowners trust the safety of the new corridor.
What this means for bitcoin
The resumption of safe shipping through Hormuz is a powerful disinflationary signal for the global economy. Reduced logistics risks and stabilization of energy supplies lead to a decline in inflation expectations. In such an environment, traditional markets shift into growth mode, which reduces investor demand for safe-haven assets, including bitcoin.
Analytical commentary: In the short term, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a temporary outflow of capital from cryptocurrencies in favor of stocks and commodities. However, for bitcoin, this is more of a correction within an uptrend rather than a reversal — the fundamental drivers of institutional adoption remain intact.