The Strait of Hormuz: the return of tankers will be delayed, and here is how it will affect bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines, the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, stated that shipowners are in no hurry to return to the Strait of Hormuz. Even after an agreement between the US and Iran, restoring normal traffic will take weeks, not days. This statement is not just a logistical note, but a signal for global markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
Jotaro Tamura, CEO of MOL, emphasized in an interview that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel fully safe again. According to his estimate, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month.
Before the conflict began at the end of February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined. MOL, which owns more than 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four ships from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven of the company's vessels are still awaiting permission to pass.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already started moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. On board are 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign vessels have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic restoration will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor.
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift to growth mode, reducing investor demand for protective alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
My analysis: The Bitcoin market, which has been growing in recent months on geopolitical instability, may face a correction. However, this is a temporary effect — fundamental drivers of cryptocurrencies, such as institutional adoption and the halving, remain in force. Investors should be prepared for increased volatility in the coming weeks.