The Strait of Hormuz: The return of tankers will take weeks — what does this mean for Bitcoin?
Global logistics is on the verge of an important, but not immediate, change. Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, stated that even after the agreement between the US and Iran, it will take several weeks to a month for ships to return to transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This statement is not just a technical detail, but a signal for all markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
MOL CEO Jotaro Tamura emphasized in a recent interview that shipowners will not rush to return to the route. According to him, the announced agreement must not just be on paper, but real and backed by practical actions in the strait. Only under conditions of complete safety will shipping companies feel confident again. Consequently, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month.
Reality on the Water: Trust Matters More Than Signatures
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war. In recent months, operators have learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions.
"Given the experience of the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of ships will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he noted. The company's head stressed that the signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route.
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting permission to pass. Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to transit the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones crossed the strait.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including bitcoin. As a result, stabilization in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows favoring stocks and commodities.
My expert assessment: This is a classic "risk-on" versus "risk-off" scenario. As long as the world fears oil disruptions, bitcoin acts as a hedge against instability. Once fear subsides, capital returns to traditional assets. However, it's worth remembering: bitcoin's long-term trend is dictated by monetary policy, not isolated geopolitical deals. A delay of a few weeks is more noise than a fundamental shift.