Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: a signal of a true bottom or a trap before a sell-off?
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has made a decisive rebound from its June lows, gaining over 22% and reclaiming a key trendline closely watched by institutional players. This surge coincided with renewed inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously recorded steady outflows for several weeks. The market appears to have shifted from a phase of panic selling to cautious accumulation.
Major holders—so-called "whales"—continued to aggressively increase their positions even amid the recent downturn, as confirmed by fresh on-chain data. However, the rapid rise in leveraged positions on the derivatives market raises doubts about the stability of this success. Experts are debating: have we formed a real bottom, or is this another false bounce within a global downtrend?
VWAP as an Indicator of Institutional Interest
On June 14, Ethereum's price confidently broke above the monthly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) line. For large players, this indicator serves as a clear dividing line between phases of accumulation and distribution of the asset. Previous VWAP breakouts led to similar results: the April breakout gave the coin 19% growth, while the May one delivered a more modest 7%. Notably, in both cases, capital inflows into spot ETFs resumed a few days after the breakout. This suggests that institutions begin actively buying at the first signs of an uptrend.
ETFs Turn Around: End of the "Bloodbath" Streak
The sentiment shift came just in time. Literally the day after reclaiming the VWAP, on June 15, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This positive result broke a very painful losing streak: from May 11 to June 12, capital outflows were recorded almost daily, except for just two trading sessions. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million. Currently, the total net assets under management of ETFs are approaching the $10.04 billion mark.
Whales Buy Everything: A Shortage of Sellers
Large investors began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP line. According to data from Santiment analysts, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they bought coins worth a total of about $950 million. Concurrently, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local bottom. It was then that the net change in exchange positions turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms.
This investor behavior indicates a transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. As a result, a shortage of sellers has formed in the market, which usually heralds an imminent trend change. Analysts from Swissblock noted in their recent Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum has been in a capitulation phase for a long time. This state of strong market pressure often precedes a powerful price reversal.
Key Levels and a Hidden Threat
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP ($1,705). However, this is still not enough for a definitive reversal. Buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851 for the asset to return to its previous trading range. The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, and at its peak exceeded $10.27 billion.
A reliable foundation for growth is only formed after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are seeing the opposite process—open interest is rising along with the price. This state of affairs indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than real demand in the spot market. Overloaded longs could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
My analysis: Whale accumulation and the return of institutional capital via ETFs are powerful bullish signals. However, the derivatives market is currently overheated, and any sharp decline could trigger a cascade of liquidations. A true bottom will only be confirmed after ETH confidently breaks through the $1,851 level and reduces open interest in futures. Until then, the current rebound remains questionable.