Wintermute Analysis: Bitcoin risks dropping to the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
Although Bitcoin (BTC) broke its prolonged four-week losing streak last week and rebounded from support around $60,000 back to levels above $65,000, calling this a "bottom" is premature. My analysis of capital flows and the macroeconomic backdrop confirms that the market remains highly vulnerable, and the scenario of a drop to near $50,000 is still in play.
Two Catalysts for the Rebound — and Their Vulnerability
The upward movement was triggered by two key factors that, for the first time in a long while, worked in unison. First, the May US inflation data (CPI) came in at 4.2% year-over-year — the third consecutive increase, but strictly within expectations. The market had priced in a higher scenario, and the alignment with forecasts eased some tension. A particularly important signal was the slowdown in core inflation to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed. Second, the geopolitical factor — the resolution of the conflict between the US and Iran. The agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade, scheduled for signing on June 19, caused Brent crude to collapse from $110 to levels above $80 over the month (a 6.6% drop for the week). The reduction in the geopolitical premium directly improves inflation forecasts and pressures the dollar and government bond yields. These two events reinforced each other, creating a powerful but, in my view, temporary impulse.
Why It's Too Early to Talk About a Bottom
The main issue I see is the lack of a reversal in liquidity channels. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows exclusively on excess liquidity flowing through three channels: stablecoins, spot ETFs, and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). At this point, none of them show signs of recovery. Assets under management at DAT companies have shrunk from $220 billion to $140 billion, and the inflow of new capital outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has nearly halted. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, while stablecoin inflows are on a downward trajectory. Institutions remain on the sidelines, and retail investors are focused on trading stocks and leveraged funds.
As the history of the previous cycle shows, real growth only began after ETF approval and the subsequent capital inflow. Now we are witnessing the reverse process. Until flows reverse, any rally is merely a correction within a downtrend. The risk/reward ratio around the low $60,000s does look attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. However, I do not rule out that before the situation improves, Bitcoin may test the $50,000 zone to shake out weak hands and create a cleaner structure for the next bullish impulse.
My expert opinion: The market is in a consolidation phase with a bearish bias. The key signal for entry is not price, but a resumption of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins. Until that happens, every rebound is an opportunity for profit-taking, not for aggressive position building.