The Strait of Hormuz: the return of tankers will take weeks — what this means for Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made an important statement: even after the agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not return to the Strait of Hormuz instantly. This process, according to him, will take from several weeks to a whole month. It's not just about logistics, but also about fundamental trust in the safety of the route.
Reality, not paper: why tankers are in no hurry
MOL CEO Jōtarō Tamura emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel completely safe again. The experience of recent months, when war was followed by a series of disruptions, has taught operators caution. They are not jumping to conclusions and are waiting for practical evidence of stability in the strait.
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. At MOL, which operates over 900 vessels, four tankers have already been withdrawn from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran, while at least seven are still awaiting passage clearance. The first vessel to transit the strait after the agreement was the Indian gas carrier Disha, carrying 62,370 tons of gas. In total, ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait.
Impact on Bitcoin: temporary cooling or structural shift?
The resumption of safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz directly reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This, in turn, leads to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the strait may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
My analysis: While shipowners assess the real safety of the route, the oil and gas market will remain tense, supporting interest in Bitcoin as a hedge. However, once trust is restored—and that's a matter of weeks—pressure on the crypto market could intensify. Key signal: watch the speed of tanker returns. Every day of delay is an additional argument in favor of "digital gold."