The Strait of Hormuz: tankers are in no hurry to return, and here is how it will affect Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement that has a sobering effect on markets. According to him, even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, the return of tankers to the Strait of Hormuz will take not days, but weeks.
Jotaro Tamura, CEO of MOL, emphasized that shipowners will not immediately resume voyages through this critical maritime corridor. He noted that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only under these conditions will shipping companies feel fully safe again. Consequently, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month.
Before the conflict began at the end of February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war. Over recent months, operators have learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions.
"Given the experience of the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he stated.
The company's leader stressed that the signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only under these conditions will shipowners decide to return to the route.
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal, the company withdrew four ships from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of restoring traffic along the route will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor.
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe shipping reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
My analysis: A direct correlation between tanker movements and the price of Bitcoin is an oversimplification. However, the factor of reducing the geopolitical premium in oil does indeed diminish Bitcoin's attractiveness as a hedge against inflation. In the short term, this could create pressure on BTC, but the medium-term trend will remain dependent on the Fed's monetary policy.