Analysts warn: Bitcoin could test the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
Despite a recent positive bounce from the $60,000 mark, the Bitcoin (BTC) market has not yet reached its bottom. Leading analysts allow for a scenario of retesting the zone near $50,000. An attractive risk-reward ratio in the long term does not negate short-term risks, and the current bounce is not a trend reversal, but merely a temporary respite.
Last week, BTC broke a four-week losing streak, bouncing from the $60,000 support back to levels above $65,000. This momentum was driven by two key factors that, for the first time in a long while, worked in unison.
What pushed the market up?
The first factor was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.2%, marking the highest since April 2023 and the third consecutive acceleration. However, the figure matched expectations, which was the key point. Debt market participants had feared a higher reading, and the alignment with the forecast relieved some pressure. Meanwhile, core inflation slowed to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed rather than accelerating.
The second and more significant factor was the de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. After more than 100 days of confrontation, the parties announced a deal, agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade. The formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil collapsed from $110 to levels above $80 over the past month, losing 6.6% in just one week.
The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium pulled down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves the inflation outlook, so the CPI data and the end of the conflict this week reinforced each other rather than canceling out. The nearest catalyst for the market will be the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership on June 17.
Why hasn't the bottom been reached yet?
The main question, according to analysts, is when the market will turn around, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and publicly traded crypto-holding companies (DAT). None of them are turning around yet.
Assets under management of DAT companies have fallen from roughly $220 billion to $140 billion, and beyond Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, the attraction of new capital has almost ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest series of outflows since launch, while inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory.
In the current cycle, let me remind you how the previous one began: real growth started with the approval of ETFs in early 2024 and the capital inflow they brought. Now, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are busy trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until a reversal occurs, it is premature to declare that the bottom has been reached.
My conclusion: The main advice is to watch capital flows, not price or headlines. The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. Nevertheless, I do not rule out that Bitcoin could drop into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves. The market has not yet completed its full cleansing cycle.