The Strait of Hormuz: Why the return of tankers will take weeks, and how it affects bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement shedding light on the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, even after the signing of a potential agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not return to routes through the strait immediately. This process will take from several weeks to a whole month.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts, not just a declaration. Only then will shipping companies feel fully safe again. Given the experience of recent months, operators have learned caution and are in no hurry to draw conclusions. Restoring previous traffic is a matter of time and trust.
Reality on the Water: First Steps and Expectations
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war, which has made operators extremely cautious. He noted that a signed agreement between the countries is not enough—real conditions and their practical implementation in the strait itself are important.
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal, the company withdrew four ships from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL ships are still awaiting passage clearance. Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement, carrying 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten ships under the Indian flag and five foreign vessels have crossed the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic recovery along the route will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor. My analysis shows that even after a formal treaty, it will take at least two to three weeks before we see a significant increase in traffic.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe shipping reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. In such conditions, traditional markets shift to growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities.
Expert Commentary: I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Bitcoin remains a key hedge against monetary risks, and once the macroeconomic dust settles, institutional interest in digital assets will recover. However, in the short term, traders should be prepared for a correction if the energy crisis truly begins to ease.