Ethereum whales are increasing their positions: $950 million in a week amid a trend reversal
Over the past week, the largest Ethereum (ETH) holders have increased their holdings by approximately $950 million, coinciding with a 22% price rebound from the June low. This aggressive accumulation cycle, initiated even before the breakout of key levels, signals deep confidence among institutional players in the asset's long-term potential.
Technical Analysis: VWAP as a Watershed
On June 14, the ETH price firmly established itself above the monthly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) line, which traditionally serves as an indicator of shifts between accumulation and distribution phases for large capital. Previous breakouts of this level—in April and May—led to gains of 19% and 7%, respectively. Notably, in both cases, the breakout was followed by capital inflows into spot ETFs, not the other way around. We are now observing a similar pattern: on June 15, net inflows into ETFs reached $22.5 million, breaking a prolonged series of outflows that had lasted since May 11.
On-Chain Metrics: Whales Buy, Sellers Disappear
According to Santiment data, millionaire wallets have increased their balances from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH since June 10. This is equivalent to purchasing approximately $950 million at current prices. Concurrently, the net position metric on exchanges turned negative on June 7, indicating a mass withdrawal of coins from trading platforms into cold storage. Such a shortage of sellers on the spot market is a classic precursor to a trend reversal.
Futures Market: A Hidden Threat
However, the picture is not entirely clear. Open interest in ETH futures has surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. The rise in price alongside open interest points to the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine spot demand. This overcrowding of long positions creates a risk of cascading liquidations at the slightest downward move. Until the excess leverage is fully flushed out, it is premature to declare the capitulation phase over.
Key Levels for Ethereum
At the time of analysis, ETH is trading around $1,771, holding above the VWAP at $1,705. To confirm an upward trend, bulls need a decisive daily close above the resistance at $1,851. The first support on a decline is the $1,624 level, with the critical point being the June low of $1,507. A close below this mark would invalidate the bullish scenario and open the door to new local lows.
My Comment: The actions of whales and the resumption of ETF inflows are powerful bullish signals, but they do not negate the fundamental issue of an overheated futures market. As long as margin traders dominate, any positive movement will be vulnerable to sharp corrections. A true bottom will only form after the complete liquidation of excess long positions, and the current rebound may prove to be just another false breakout within the global downtrend.