Ethereum whales have scooped up $950 million worth of ETH: is a bottom forming?
The Ethereum (ETH) price has demonstrated a confident rebound of 22% from its June low, managing to hold above a key trend line closely watched by institutional investors. This rally coincided with renewed capital inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously recorded steady outflows for several weeks.
Large holders, known as "whales," continued to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency even during the downturn, as confirmed by fresh on-chain data. However, the rapid growth in leverage volume raises doubts about the stability of this success. Experts debate whether the market has formed a real bottom or if this is another false bounce within a global downtrend.
Ethereum Holds the Monthly VWAP Line
On June 14, the Ethereum price rose above the monthly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) line. This indicator serves as a dividing line for major players between the accumulation and distribution phases of assets. Previous breaks of this level led to similar outcomes: the April breakout above VWAP brought a 19% gain, while the May one yielded a more modest 7%.
Notably, in both cases, capital inflows into spot ETFs resumed a few days after the breakout. This indicates that institutions begin actively buying at the first signs of an uptrend. The correlation repeats regularly, so investors should closely monitor fund statistics.
ETF Inflows After a Tough Streak
The sentiment reversal came at a very timely moment. On June 15, the day after the price held above the VWAP line, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs reached $22.5 million. This positive result broke a painful series of declines: from May 11 to June 12, capital outflows were recorded almost daily, with only two trading sessions as exceptions.
Currently, total net assets under management are approaching the $10.04 billion mark. If a market bottom is confirmed, we could see a repeat of a positive scenario, but relying solely on ETFs would be a mistake, as key processes are now unfolding directly on-chain.
Whales Keep Buying, Capitulation Signs Fade
Large investors began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP line. Whales steadily increased their positions, completely ignoring the local price drop. According to Santiment analysts, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they purchased coins worth a total of about $950 million.
Simultaneously, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local low. It was then that the net exchange position change indicator turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms to cold wallets for long-term storage. As a result, a seller shortage formed in the market, which typically heralds an imminent trend reversal.
Analysts at Swissblock noted in their latest Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum had been in a capitulation phase for a long time. This state of strong market pressure often precedes a powerful price reversal.
Key Levels and Risks
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which sits at the $1,705 level. Since the beginning of June, the coin has gained about 22% from its low of $1,507, but this is still insufficient for a definitive reversal. To confirm an uptrend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. Total open interest in ETH futures has surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excessive leveraged positions. Currently, we are seeing the opposite process—open interest rises alongside the price, indicating the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward move.
Analytical Conclusion: It is still premature to claim that a bottom has formed. Growth fueled by borrowed funds is a fragile structure. Only a confident break above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce. If a decline begins, the first support level will be $1,624, with the critical point being the low at $1,507.