The return of tankers to the Strait of Hormuz: what it means for Bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest shipowner by number of tankers, made an important statement that directly impacts global markets and, consequently, cryptocurrencies. According to him, even after the signing of the agreement between the US and Iran, the return of tankers to the Strait of Hormuz will not be immediate. This process could take from several weeks to a whole month.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that shipowners will not immediately resume voyages through this critically important maritime corridor. He noted that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will companies feel completely safe. The experience of recent months, when deals fell through, has taught operators caution.
Reality, not paper
Tamura pointed out that a signed agreement between the countries is not enough. What matters are the real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route. MOL has over 900 vessels, and before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four ships from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic restoration will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor.
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This leads to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities.
Cryptalist Analysis: In my view, the market is somewhat prematurely pricing in a full de-escalation of the conflict. The statement from the head of MOL is a clear signal that the "bearish" scenario for oil and, consequently, for Bitcoin, may be delayed. If traffic restoration takes a month, we will see sustained elevated volatility and, possibly, a new wave of demand for BTC as a safe-haven asset in the short term.