The return of tankers to Hormuz: Bitcoin awaits correction amid stabilization
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, warned that even after an agreement between the US and Iran, it will take several weeks for ships to return to the Strait of Hormuz. This statement has direct implications not only for global energy markets but also for Bitcoin dynamics.
Realities of Hormuz: Trust Recovers Slowly
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. MOL CEO Jotaro Tamura emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipowners feel safe and decide to return to the route. In his estimation, restoring previous traffic levels could take anywhere from a couple of weeks to a full month.
The experience of recent months has taught operators caution. "Given the experience of the last couple of months, it is reasonable to assume that the return of ships will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," Tamura stated. He also noted that a signed agreement between countries is not enough—real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are crucial.
MOL operates over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four ships from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance. Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first ship under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement, carrying 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten ships under the Indian flag and five foreign vessels have crossed the strait.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of restoring traffic along the route will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor. However, for Bitcoin, the macroeconomic consequences are more important. The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations.
In such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows favoring stocks and commodities.
My analysis: As long as the geopolitical premium remains in Bitcoin's price, any sign of de-escalation will pressure quotes. However, do not expect a crash—rather, we will likely see consolidation within a range as investors reassess risks. The long-term trend remains bullish, but in the coming weeks, BTC may lose some of its recent momentum.