Wintermute Analysis: Bitcoin risks falling to $50,000 despite the rebound
Although Bitcoin (BTC) broke its four-week losing streak last week and bounced from the $60,000 zone back to levels above $65,000, leading market analysts warn that this is not the end of the correction. Based on my assessment, grounded in a deep analysis of capital flows and macroeconomic data, the bottom has not yet been reached, and we could see a move toward the $50,000 area.
Two Key Catalysts for the Bounce
The market received a powerful double boost. First, May U.S. inflation data (CPI) showed an annual increase of 4.2%, which matched expectations but dispelled fears among debt market participants of higher figures. At the same time, core inflation slowed to 2.9%, indicating that the peak of the energy impulse has passed.
Second, and in my view even more significant, the prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran has ended. The parties announced a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, with the signing of documents scheduled for June 19. This has led to a collapse in Brent oil prices from $110 to $80 over the past month, directly improving inflation forecasts.
Why the Bottom Has Not Been Reached: Liquidity Is Silent
The main question now is when the market will turn, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin grows due to excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, spot ETFs, and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). Right now, none of these channels show signs of a reversal.
Assets under management of DAT companies have fallen from $220 billion to $140 billion, and the attraction of new capital has almost completely stopped. Spot ETFs are experiencing their longest series of outflows since launch. Inflows into stablecoins are also on a downward trajectory.
Institutional investors remain on the sidelines, while retail traders are captivated by stocks and leveraged funds. Until these flows reverse, it is premature to declare that the bottom has been reached.
My Conclusion
The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 area looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves an increasingly resilient base of holders. However, I agree with colleagues: before the situation improves, Bitcoin could move into the $50,000 zone. Watch capital flows, not price headlines—they will tell you when the time is right for an aggressive entry.