Tankers are in no hurry: real restoration of transit through Hormuz will take weeks, and bitcoin will come under pressure
The global shipping market, despite diplomatic shifts between the US and Iran, is in no hurry to return tankers to the Strait of Hormuz. The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made it clear: even after an agreement is signed, it will take weeks, or even a whole month, before traffic returns to previous levels.
Real deal, real risks
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that shipowners no longer trust mere statements. Over the past months, they have experienced a series of setbacks and have learned caution. According to him, the return of vessels to the route is only possible if the terms of the agreement are actually implemented on the ground—in the strait itself. Paper agreements no longer work.
MOL, operating more than 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four tankers from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven more of the company's ships are awaiting passage clearance. This is a clear indicator that the logistics system remains blocked.
The first signs of movement have appeared: the Indian gas carrier Disha, with 62,370 tons of gas on board, became the first Indian-flagged vessel to pass through the strait after the deal was announced. In total, ten Indian and five foreign ships have crossed the strait. However, this is just a drop in the ocean compared to previous traffic, when more than a fifth of the world's oil and LNG volumes passed through Hormuz.
What this means for Bitcoin
The restoration of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz directly reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This, in turn, leads to a decline in inflation expectations. In such a scenario, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven assets—including Bitcoin.
In the short term, this could trigger a capital outflow from cryptocurrencies in favor of stocks and commodities. However, it is worth remembering: full traffic recovery will take weeks, and throughout this time, the market will remain in a state of uncertainty.
Analytical conclusion: As long as shipowners do not see real safety in the strait, Bitcoin may remain under pressure due to liquidity flowing into traditional assets. But once the geopolitical risk finally subsides, the crypto market will receive a new fundamental boost—against the backdrop of declining global inflation and a recovery in risk appetite.