The Strait of Hormuz: The return of tankers will take weeks — what this means for Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement that directly impacts global markets. According to him, even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not return to the Strait of Hormuz instantly. This process will take at least several weeks, and possibly an entire month.
A Real Deal is the Key Factor
MOL CEO Jōtarō Tamura emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel fully safe again. The experience of recent months, when deals fell through, has taught operators caution. They are in no hurry to draw conclusions. Restoring previous traffic, in his estimation, could take from a couple of weeks to an entire month — even after the document is signed.
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting permission to pass. Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement, carrying 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic restoration will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor.
Impact on Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows favoring stocks and commodities.
My comment: While the geopolitical risk premium decreases, Bitcoin loses some of its appeal as "digital gold." However, in the long term, de-escalation of the conflict strengthens the global economy, which ultimately is positive for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The key signal is the actual speed of traffic restoration, not the signing of papers.