Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: a signal of a bottom or a trap before a crash?
The largest holders of Ethereum (ETH) continue to aggressively increase their positions, despite the recent correction. According to fresh on-chain data, over the past week, the balances of millionaire wallets have increased by 0.55 million ETH — from 124.85 million to 125.4 million coins. At current prices, this is equivalent to acquiring assets worth about $950 million. This behavior by "whales" against the backdrop of a local low raises a natural question: is a real bottom forming, or is the market preparing for another false bounce?
The key catalyst for the growth was a 22% price bounce from the June low of $1,507. On June 14, the ETH rate managed to consolidate above the critical line of the monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP), which for institutional traders serves as a dividing line between accumulation and distribution phases. Historically, such VWAP breakouts (in April and May) led to gains of 19% and 7% respectively, confirming the significance of this indicator.
Spot ETFs: A Reversal of the Negative Trend
It is important to note that the price recovery coincided with the resumption of net capital inflows into spot ETFs on ETH. On June 15, literally the day after consolidating above the VWAP, the funds recorded an inflow of $22.5 million. This broke an extremely painful series of outflows that lasted from May 11 to June 12 — during this period, only two trading days showed positive results. For comparison: on May 1, the inflow was $101 million, and on May 5, it was $98 million.
The total volume of net assets under management in ETFs is now approaching the $10.04 billion mark. If the trend continues, we may see a repeat of the May scenario, where small amounts grew into a string of successful days. However, relying solely on ETFs would be a mistake — key processes are currently happening directly on the network.
Seller Capitulation: Signs of Fading
Alongside whale accumulation, on-chain metrics have recorded a sharp decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market ceased around June 7, when the coin found a local low. The net change in exchange positions indicator went into negative territory, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms to cold wallets for long-term storage.
Analysts at Swissblock, in their recent Altcoin Vector report, noted that Ethereum has been in a capitulation phase for a long time. This state of strong market pressure often precedes a powerful reversal in quotes. The current reduction in exchange balances confirms that the acute phase of selling appears to have indeed passed. Nevertheless, the overall picture is significantly marred by the situation in the derivatives market.
Main Threat: Overheated Derivatives Market
The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, and at its peak exceeded $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Now, we are seeing the opposite process — open interest is rising along with the price.
This state of affairs indicates the dominance of margin traders, rather than real demand in the spot market. Overloaded longs could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP at $1,705. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance of $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range. If a decline begins, the first support level will be $1,624, and the critical point will be the low of $1,507. A daily close below this mark will force the market to seek new lows.
My expert opinion: Whale accumulation of $950 million is a powerful bullish signal, but it is negated by the rise in open interest. Until we see a forced liquidation of a significant portion of long positions, any upward movement will be vulnerable. A true bottom forms when margin traders "burn out," not when they increase leverage. Watch the $1,851 level — only a confident breakout above it will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.