The Strait of Hormuz: Why tankers are in no hurry to return and how it affects Bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines, the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a significant statement: shipowners will not immediately return to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, this process will take several weeks, even after an agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran.
Caution Above All: Lessons from Recent Months
Jotaro Tamura, head of Mitsui OSK Lines, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel completely safe again. Restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a full month. Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined.
Tamura pointed to a series of setbacks since the start of the war. Over the past few months, operators have learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions. The experience of the last couple of months shows that it is reasonable to assume the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month. The company's head stressed that a signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are crucial. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route.
Early Signs: Movement Has Already Begun
MOL operates over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance. Meanwhile, some cargo has already started moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement, carrying 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of traffic recovery on the route will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift to a growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
Analyst's Opinion: It appears that the BTC market is already pricing in a positive geopolitical scenario, and any real improvement in the strait situation could increase pressure on the leading cryptocurrency in the short term. However, it is important to remember that Bitcoin's structural drivers, such as institutional adoption and halving, remain unchanged, so any correction against this backdrop may be only temporary.