The Strait of Hormuz: The return of tankers will take weeks, and here is how it will impact bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement that is sobering markets. According to him, even after a formal agreement is reached between the US and Iran, shipowners will not rush to return their tankers to the Strait of Hormuz. This process will take from several weeks to a whole month.
Jyotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts on the ground. Only then will shipping companies feel fully safe again. The experience of recent months, filled with deal breakdowns and escalation, has taught operators extreme caution. Therefore, restoring previous traffic is not a matter of days, but a matter of weeks.
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. At MOL, which operates over 900 vessels, four tankers have already been withdrawn from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran, and at least seven are still awaiting permission to pass.
Significantly, the first vessels have indeed begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha, with 62,370 tons of gas on board, became the first Indian-flagged vessel to pass through the strait after the deal was announced. Officials reported that a total of ten Indian-flagged vessels and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. However, this is just a drop in the ocean compared to previous volumes.
What this means for bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation directly reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, lowering investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including bitcoin.
My analysis: Stabilization in the Strait of Hormuz is a classic "risk-on" signal for traditional markets, which temporarily diverts capital from the crypto sphere into stocks and commodities. However, this should not be perceived as a bearish trend for bitcoin. Rather, it is a pause before the next phase of growth. Once the effect of reduced inflation expectations is fully priced in, the crypto market will find its footing again, especially amid a weakening dollar. The current delay in tanker returns merely postpones this moment, but does not cancel it.